Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020

National economic recessions – The price to pay

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research The consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand....
Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020

Global growth shaken, central banks stirred

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...
Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020

Virus, volatility and valuations

4X Global Research Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 27 February 2020 In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up...
Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020

Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy – 4X Global Global FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1). Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only...

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