US CPI confirmed lower in December 2018 but the core holds and wages rise
December 2018 US CPI inflation data 11 January 2019 CPI 1.9% vs 1.9% exp y/y. Prior 2.2% -0.1% vs -0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.0% Core 2.2% vs 2.2% exp/prior y/y 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.2% Real average weekly earnings 0.7% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior -0.1% 1.2% vs 1.2%...
UK industrial production softer but GDP is up in November 2018
November 2018 UK industrial and manufacturing production, GDP and trade balance data 11 January 2019 Industrial production -0.4% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior -0.6% -1.5% vs -0.7% exp y/y. Prior -0.8% Manufacturing production -0.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior -0.9% -1.1% vs -0.7%...
US EIA weekly oil inventories drop less than expected
US weekly oil inventory data w/e 4 January 2018 Crude -1.680m vs -2.700m exp. Prior 7k OPD -6.127m Cushing 0.330m vs 0.641m prior. OPD 0.331m Gas 8.066m vs 3.300m exp. Prior 6.890m. OPD 5.05m Dist 10.611m vs 1.400m exp, Prior 9.529m. OPD 10.2m Production 11.7m unch A...
The economic impact from the US government shutdown starts Friday and it could impact the Fed
When should we start to look for an economic impact? Friday is crunch time for a lot of Federal workers as they are due to miss being paid due to the shutdown, unless the situation is quickly resolved. There have been instances when special funding measures have been...
Bumper US non-farm payrolls in December 2018 and more folks look for work
December 2018 US non-farm payrolls and employment report 4 January 2019 Non-farm payrolls 312k vs 177k exp. Prior 155k Private payrolls 301k vs 175k exp. Prior 161k Manufacturing payrolls 32k vs 20k exp. Prior 27k Government payrolls 11k vs -6k prior Unemployment rate...
UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit down in November 2018
November 2018 UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit data 4 January 2019 Mortgage approvals 63,728 vs 66,500 exp. Prior 67,086 Mortgage lending 3.453bn vs 3.955bn exp. Prior 4.121bn. revised to 4.089bn BOE consumer credit 0.924bn vs 0.950bn exp. Prior 0.894bn....
December 2018 Eurozone Markit services PMI falls to the lowest since November 2014
December 2018 Eurozone final Markit services PMI 4 January 2019 Services PMI 51.2 vs 51.4 exp. Flash 51.4. Nov 51.8 Composite 51.1 vs 51.3 exp/prior The latest data on prices indicated that input costs continued to increase at an elevated rate at the end of 2018. Wage...
US ISM manufacturing PMI dumps in December 2018
December 2018 US ISM manufacturing PMI data 3 January 2019 Manufacturing PMI 54.1 vs 57.9 exp. Prior 59.3 Prices paid 54.9 vs 58.0 exp. Prior 60.7 New orders 51.1 vs 62.1 prior Employment 56.2 vs 58.4 prior Biggest drop since 2008. Given the higher volatility right...
Massive beat for US ADP employment in December 2018
December 2018 US ADP employment report 3 January 2018 Employment report 271k vs 178k exp. Prior 179k Small business 89k vs 46k prior Medium 129k vs 116k prior Large 54k vs 13k prior Goods producing sector 47k vs 16k prior Services 224k vs 163k prior Manufacturing 12k...
UK manufacturing PMI makes it two on the trot with another big beat in December 2018
December 2018 UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI 2 January 2019 Manufacturing PMI 54.2 vs 52.5 exp. Prior 53.1 New order and new export order inflows strengthen Stocks of purchases and finished goods rise sharply A second strong beat on the spin but Markit says that...
Final Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December 2018 wraps up a poor month
December 2018 Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI final 2 January 2019 Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 51.4 exp. Flash 51.4. Nov 51.8 Fall in new work signalled for third month running Confidence about the future hits fresh six-year low during December Input cost inflation...
UK final Q3 2018 GDP comes with no surprises
Q3 2018 UK GDP final revision 21 December 2018 GDP final 0.6% vs 0.6% exp q/q. Prior 0.6%. Q2 0.4% 1.5% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.5% Business investment -1.1% vs -1.2% prior q/q -1.8% vs -1.9% prior y/y Exports 1.1% vs 2.7% prior q/q -1.3% vs 0.7% prior y/y Imports...
UK CBI distributive trade sales run out of steam in Decemeber 2018
December 2018 UK distributive trade sales for the retail sector 20 December 2018 Distributive trade sales -13 vs 16 exp. Prior 19 3m sales 4 vs 16 prior Orders -23 vs 15 prior Expected sales 0 vs 22 prior Expected sales for time of year -22 vs 8 prior As we've...
UK retail sales get a Black Friday boost in November 2018
November 2018 UK retail sales data 20 December 2018 Retail sales 1.4% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior -0.5% 3.6% vs 1.9% exp y/y. Prior 2.2% Ex-fuel 1.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior -0.4% 3.8% vs 2.3% exp y/y. Prior 2.7% Much stronger than expected but not unexpected at ForexFlow...
US EIA weekly oil inventories show a smaller draw than expected w/e 14 December 2018
US weekly oil inventory data w/e 14 December 2018 Oil inventories -0.497 vs -2.437m exp. Prior -1.208m Cushing 1.091m vs 1.148m prior. Gasoline 1.766m vs 1.200m exp. Prior 2.087m. Distillates -4.237m vs 0.573m exp. Prior -1.475m. Production 11.6m vs 11.6m prior Still...
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