Research
The big market players are analysing the markets like the rest of us. This is where you can read what they have to say.
ING are bullish on GBP
ING's outlook for GBP: Medium-term bulls With BoE policy tightening and a resilient UK economy acting as a 'put' on the pound amid short-term Brexit risks, we continue to think there is more GBP upside over the coming months. We target GBP/USD at 1.45 in 2Q18....
Financial markets’ reaction function to event flow is in line with recent patterns – 4X Global Research
Markets have had to digest a great deal of headline-grabbing news -Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research – 08 March 2018 Our Forecasts – Hits and Misses 4X Global Research prides itself on the transparency of...
Beware of dormant FX volatility
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 27 February 2018 Equity market volatility, both implied and realized, which peaked in early February has eased off in the past fortnight but is still high when compared...
Bank of England to get ahead of the curve and hike in May – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 14 February 2018 The Bank of England (BoE) has made clear in recent days that it may hike rates sooner and faster than it and markets had anticipated. Our core scenario at...
Do you want to know where Morgan Stanley are looking to buy EURUSD?
In the excellent weekly Morgan Stanley FX Pulse report, they're looking to buy a dip in EURUSD Morgan Stanley like the look of EURUSD longs and they're waiting for a dip to buy into. They have an order in to buy at 1.2165 with a stop at 1.2050 and a target of 1.2800....
Snowflake could trigger an equity avalanche – 4X Global research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research The multi-year rally in US equities has set numerous records but so did the downturn on 2-5 February and the rise in until now dormant volatility. The underlying cause(s)...
TD Securities ECB preview: EURUSD upside to prevail if Draghi doesn’t take a big swipe at FX strength at the ECB meeting
Some comments from TD Securities ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting We look for the ECB to keep its 12:45pm press release unchanged, despite the speculation that it could start changing the language as soon as this week’s meeting, something that we only give a 10%...
Morgan Stanley won’t get the chance to profit if the BOC don’t hike
Morgan Stanley are stopped out of a long USDCAD trade USDCAD has just dipped under 1.2400 by 3 pips and that's probably enough to stop out a long USDCAD trade that Morgan Stanley took at the New York close last week. In at around 1.2520/25 on the 11th, they has a stop...
How well do forex brokers perform over big data points?
A look at broker spreads around big economic data points As part of ForexFlow's efforts to help bring as much clarity to traders as possible, I've teamed up with my good friends at Tradeproofer.com to bring you some of their broker analysis. These folks are an...
Here’s what Deutsche Bank is worried about in 2018
Here's Deutsche Bank's worries for 2018 While the Turkey's are enjoying their last few days of freedom, the banks are busy telling us what's going to happen next year. DB is out with 30 things we should all be worried about. I'm going to add another; 31. How many...
Morgan Stanley’s FX forecasts for 2018
Morgan Stanley are out with their 2018 Global Strategy Outlook The guys and girls over at Morgan Stanley have put together their thoughts for 2018. Here's a look at their FX forecasts first. Numbers are Q1-4 2018 & 2019 EURUSD 2018 1.20/1.23/1.18/1.17. 2019...
Morgan Stanley warn about excessive JPY short positions
In Morgan Stanley's latest great FX Pulse report, they flag some dangers showing from the CFTC positioning data In this week's FX Pulse report, Morgan's highlight that JPY shorts (USDJPY longs) could be becoming stretched, as per the numbers in the recent CFTC...
Morgan Stanley get spooked out of their AUDUSD shorts
In the latest weekly FX report from Morgan Stanley, they note they closed their AUDUSD shorts Morgan Stanley closed their 0.7856 AUDUSD short at last night's NY close (around 0.7820), as the lack of USD strength got them nervous; The weaker USD environment is going to...
Japan election update :Koike dropped the corporate taxation bomb
Not sure I want to buy JPY if her Kibou No To party would win During an election campaign rally, Yuriko Koike finally announced the plan to tax Corporate Japan's 400 trln JPY dormant cash. As I said before, her plans are kind of laudable, but in my opinion, risk...
ECB: ECB Finds Interest Rate Risk Is Well Managed In Most European Banks
Higher Interest Rates Would Lead To Higher Net Interest Income In The Next Three Years For A Majority Of Banks, - But Lower Economic Value Of Equity - Supervisors Will Follow Up On The Results In Supervisory Dialogues With The Individual Banks - Overall Capital Demand...
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